National Petroleum Reserve: Alaska Climate Change Analysis

What we did

The Bureau of Land Management–Arctic Field Office manages the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A). In 2010, the BLM undertook an Integrated Activity Plan (IAP)/Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to determine its future management of the NPR-A.The IAP/EIS considers the impacts of climate change in its plan. To improve the IAP/EIS’s analysis of climate change’s effects on the planning area and its resources, the BLM enlisted SNAP’s assistance in incorporating climate change modeling.

What we found

Overall, the NPR-A is expected to become much warmer in the middle and latter portion of this century, with a longer growing season, shorter and less severe winters, and a deeper active layer in soils. Some increases in precipitation are likely, complete permafrost thaw may occur in limited areas, and fire may become a factor on the landscape. Hydrologic changes are likely, although landscape drying is more likely to be driven indirectly by permafrost thaw and vegetation change than by increases in evapotranspiration, at least in the early part of this century.

See the final report for full results of this assessment.