Publications

The Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model was developed specifically to assess the effect of a changing climate on permafrost. The GIPL 1.0 model is a quasi-transitional, spatially distributed, equilibrium model for calculating the active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperature.

Explore future changes in crop growth and survival across Alaska. You can use this web tool to explore aspects of gardening related to length of growing season, minimum temperatures, and more.

State-transition type vegetation succession model that focuses on system interactions and feedbacks. User-defined spatial resolution (currently operational at 1 km pixels). User-defined temporal resolution (currently operational on annual time step w/ monthly fire-climate relationship). Pixels are randomly “ignited” and fire “spreads” as a function of climate and vegetation state.

This document provides a summary of preliminary simulation results and a discussion of ongoing modeling activities aimed at providing definitive statewide simulation results. In addition, simulation model details and references are included.

In collaboration with the University of Alaska, including SNAP researchers, the Municipality of Anchorage has created a Climate Action Plan that focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for the impacts of climate change.

This proposal responds to a US Department of Defense request for proposals for improving strategic defense of the Arctic region. The UAF Arctic Environmental & Engineering Data and Design Support System will refine, further develop, and deploy a suite of online technologies that curate and dynamically update relevant Arctic environmental data for use in web-based maps, modules, and notebooks.

UAS research confirmed that threatened Steller Sea Lion populations could be more accurately and safely surveyed at their haul-outs and rookeries.

Climate change already is affecting the built environment, including Department of Defense (DoD) built and natural infrastructure. This infrastructure is necessary for military readiness and daily operations. Thus, clear, well-supported, contextual information is needed on appropriate and applied use of climate information for non-experts.

The Wilderness Society used SNAP data and assistance to create climate summary reports for National Park lands. These reports describe potential future temperature and precipitation for 2040 and 2080 as compared to historical values (a 1961–1990 climatology). This report covers Yukon-Charley, Wrangell-St. Elias, and Denali National Parks.

The Wilderness Society used SNAP data and assistance to create climate summary reports for National Park lands. These reports describe potential future temperature and precipitation for 2040 and 2080 as compared to historical values (a 1961–1990 climatology). This report covers Noatak, Gates of the Arctic, and Kobuk Valley National Parks.

The Wilderness Society used SNAP data and assistance to create climate summary reports for National Park lands. These reports describe potential future temperature and precipitation for 2040 and 2080 as compared to historical values (a 1961–1990 climatology). This report covers Cape Krusenstern and Bering Land Bridge National Parks.

The Wilderness Society used SNAP data and assistance to create climate summary reports for National Park lands. These reports describe potential future temperature and precipitation for 2040 and 2080 as compared to historical values (a 1961–1990 climatology). This report covers Glacier Bay, Klondike, Sitka, and Wrangell-St. Elias National Parks.

The Wilderness Society used SNAP data and assistance to create climate summary reports for National Park lands. These reports describe potential future temperature and precipitation for 2040 and 2080 as compared to historical values (a 1961–1990 climatology). This report covers Aniakchak National Monument and Preserve, Kenai Fjords National Park, Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Katmai National Park and Preserve, and Alagnak Wild River.

Appendix materials for the AK Cliomes Project.

This project used selected species to identify areas of Alaska that may become important in maintaining landscape-level connectivity amid climate change. Project results and data presented in this report are intended to serve as a framework for research and planning.

The project used the best available modeled climate data and associated methodologies to calculate and provide downscaled, bias corrected projections of future liquid precipitation from now until 2100 in formats and appropriate summary intervals for the Department of Transportation and Public Facilities (DOT&PF) direct use in planning and design efforts and associated calculations.

An Assessment of Climate Change Variables in the Great Bear Lake Region, Canada. Déline Renewable Resources Council (DRRC) is working on a project to assess the impacts of climate change on the aquatic ecosystems of Great Bear Lake and its watershed.

This research is designed to understand the mechanistic connections among vegetation, the organic soil layer, and permafrost ground stability in Alaskan boreal ecosystems. Understanding these linkages is critical for projecting the impact of climate change on permafrost in ecosystems that are subject to abrupt anthropogenic and natural disturbances (fire) to the organic layer.

Alaska’s temperatures are rapidly increasing. The resulting changes in temperature, precipitation, permafrost, vegetation, and fire are closely linked. The Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska and Northwest Canada (IEM) aims to understand how changes in these processes are linked and how they will affect the broader region.

The Integrated Ecosystem Model is designed to help resource managers understand the nature and expected rate of landscape change. Maps and other products generated by the IEM will illustrate how arctic and boreal landscapes are expected to alter due to climate-driven changes to vegetation, disturbance, hydrology, and permafrost.

This report describes the progress made by the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Project for the duration of the project (2011–2016). The primary goal of this project was to develop the IEM modeling framework to integrate the driving components for and the interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost dynamics, hydrology, and vegetation succession/migration for Alaska and Northwest Canada.

In collaboration with the Village of Igiugig, SNAP completed a Climate Change Adaptation Assessment.

In consultation with the National Ocean Council, the National Security Staff, and the Arctic Research Commission, the Interagency Working Group on Coordination of Domestic Energy Development and Permitting in Alaska (Alaska Interagency Working Group) initiated this report to describe these challenges as they relate to the management of natural resources in the U.S. Arctic. The report presents recommendations for advancing a common management approach that provides coordinated, forward-thinking solutions.

What makes northern Alaska communities resilient? Building on the North Slope Borough’s Healthy Communities Initiative and the Northwest Arctic Borough’s Healthy Kotzebue, Our Future!, a team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks, including SNAP scientists, completed a study that brought together Arctic Alaska resident experts and researchers to develop scenarios for healthy sustainable communities by the year 2040.

The Bureau of Land Management‐Arctic Field Office is responsible for the management of the National Petroleum Reserve‐Alaska (NPR‐A). The BLM is incorporating climate change modeling tailored for the NPR‐A and areas on Alaska’s North Slope that may seasonally be home for animals that could be affected by BLM‐authorized activities in NPR‐A. SNAP provided objective scenarios based on climate projections and associated models of future landscape conditions that are helping to inform the EIS planning process.

Peony farming serves as an excellent case study for research on climate change and agriculture in Alaska. Why? Peonies represent a burgeoning niche market, and are a crop that is uniquely lucrative in Alaska for reasons linked directly to our climate. Peonies bloom in Alaska in July, August, and September—later in the year than in other locations—and are available commercially nowhere else in the world during this time.

These projects used progressive clustering methodology, existing land cover classifications, and historical and projected climate data to identify areas of Alaska, the Yukon, and NWT that are likely to undergo the greatest or least ecological pressure, given climate change. Project results and data presented in this report are intended to serve as a framework for research and planning by land managers and other stakeholders with an interest in ecological and socioeconomic sustainability.

In collaboration with stakeholders, SNAP produces projections of future conditions in Alaska. We also provide objective interpretations of potential future scenarios, including detailed explanations of assumptions, models, methods, and uncertainties. SNAP scenarios and the data used to produce them are openly available to all potential users.

This report was commissioned by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to identify vegetation and fire regime response to projected future climate changes in Interior Alaska.

Published in NRC Research Press. Authors: B.W. Butler, R.D. Ottmar, T.S. Rupp, R. Jandt, E. Miller, K. Howard, R. Schmoll, S. Theisen, R.E. Vihnanek, and D. Jimenez.

This report details the effects of fuel reduction treatments on fire behavior in Alaska. Our results provide the first set of data required by fire behavior models, fuels characterization systems, and fire effects models. In addition, we are providing guidelines directed at design and methodology that can be used to assist in carrying out other experimental burns in Alaska when opportunity arises.

In this season’s SNAP Highlights you’ll find details and guidance about the use of two SNAP tools key to understanding fire: the Wildfire in Alaska Tool and the Daily Fire Tally Tool.

We used the Alaska Frame-based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO) vegetation-fire computer model to investigate how increasing fire suppression on military training lands could influence the extent and frequency of wildfire activity within the Upper Tanana Hydrologic Basin through the 21st century.

Hyper-detailed surface modeling and change detection methods have been developed to understand slope stability along critical Alaska highways at Glitter Gulch and Long Lake.

This paper uses a transient landscape-level model of vegetation dynamics, Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO), to evaluate the influence of different driving datasets of climate on simulation results.

The objective of this project was to model links between climate variables and spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreaks in forested regions of Alaska. This white paper explains the ecology and technical details behind the modeling work.

This guide is a conversation with people who visit and work around Alaska’s national parks. It will help illustrate what we’re doing about the changing climate. You will find facts about the science, visible evidence you can see, examples of how parks are making a difference, and things you can do to make a difference too.

Research and development of an in-situ sensor deployable on UAS to collect real-time data about volcanic aerosol size, concentration, and chemistry.

This is the report for a study conducted by the Exelis Inc. – University of Alaska Fairbanks Team for a feasibility assessment of alternative C-Band terrestrial based command and control communications approaches for supporting low altitude unmanned aircraft system inspections over the 800 mile length of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, also known as Alyeska Pipeline.

Unmanned aerial vehicle research resulted in the first bridge inspection and a hyper-detailed 3D model for bridge inspections in the United States.

The high-latitude ecosystems of the Yukon are vulnerable to climate change, including hydrologic changes. In order to predict potential changes in growing season water balance in the Yukon, the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP) and Yukon College collaborated to develop a modeling tool for mapping future growing-season water availability.