SNAP Reports

Project reports and other publications created by SNAP personnel.

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A Blueprint for Alaska’s Broadband FuturePlanning for Alaska’s broadband future is imperative because the state lags in adequate statewide infrastructure. In fact, a 2012 “State Broadband Index” developed by TechNet, an advocacy group comprised of innovators and technology leaders, ranked Alaska 49th of all 50 states in broadband adoption, network quality, and economic structure.communication infrastructure
About the GIPL Permafrost Dynamics Model

The Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model was developed specifically to assess the effect of a changing climate on permafrost. The GIPL 1.0 model is a quasi-transitional, spatially distributed, equilibrium model for calculating the active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperature.

modeling permafrost
Alaska Garden Helper Tool Factsheet

Explore future changes in crop growth and survival across Alaska. This web tools enables you to explore aspects of gardening related to length of growing season, minimum temperatures, and more.

garden web-tool
ALFRESCO Model Overview

State-transition type vegetation succession model that focuses on system interactions and feedbacks. User-defined spatial resolution (currently operational at 1 km pixels). User-defined temporal resolution (currently operational on annual time step w/ monthly fire-climate relationship). Pixels are randomly “ignited” and fire “spreads” as a function of climate and vegetation state.

ALFRESCO Summary Report for Eastern Interior Alaska

This document provides a summary of preliminary simulation results and a discussion of ongoing modeling activities aimed at providing definitive statewide simulation results. In addition, simulation model details and references are included.

alfresco forest modeling wildfire
Anchorage Climate Action Plan 2019

In collaboration with the University of Alaska, including SNAP researchers, the Municipality of Anchorage has created a Climate Action Plan that focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for the impacts of climate change.

adaptation-plan community resiliency
Augmenting Steller Sea Lion Surveys with UAS

UAS research confirmed that threatened Steller Sea Lion populations could be more accurately and safely surveyed at their haul-outs and rookeries.

drone habitat wildlife
Climate Change Scenario Planning for Central Alaska Parks

Yukon-Charley, Wrangell-St. Elias, and Denali.

climate national-parks research-collaboration
Climate Change Scenario Planning for Interior Arctic Alaska Parks

Noatak, Gates of the Arctic, and Kobuk Valley.

climate national-parks research-collaboration
Climate Change Scenario Planning for Northwest Alaska Parks

Cape Krusenstern and Bering Land Bridge.

climate national-parks research-collaboration
Climate Change Scenario Planning for Southeast Alaska Parks

Glacier Bay, Klondike, Sitka, and Wrangell-St. Elias.

climate national-parks research-collaboration
Climate Change Scenario Planning for Southwest Alaska Parks

Aniakchak National Monument and Preserve, Kenai Fjords National Park, Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Katmai National Park and Preserve, and Alagnak Wild River.

climate national-parks research-collaboration
Cliomes Project Appendices

Appendix materials for the AK Cliomes Project.

biome climate
Connecting Alaska Landscapes into the Future: Final Report

This project used selected species to identify areas of Alaska that may become important in maintaining landscape-level connectivity amid climate change. Project results and data presented in this report are intended to serve as a framework for research and planning.

community ecosystem-services forest freshwater habitat modeling permafrost research-collaboration sea-ice
Cunningham Tax Patent US10115165modeling
Great Bear Lake Climate Change Analysis: Final Report

An Assessment of Climate Change Variables in the Great Bear Lake Region, Canada. Déline Renewable Resources Council (DRRC) is working on a project to assess the impacts of climate change on the aquatic ecosystems of Great Bear Lake and its watershed.

climate community
Identifying Indicators of State Change and Forecasting Future Vulnerability in Alaskan Boreal Forest

This research is designed to understand the mechanistic connections among vegetation, the organic soil layer, and permafrost ground stability in Alaskan boreal ecosystems. Understanding these linkages is critical for projecting the impact of climate change on permafrost in ecosystems that are subject to abrupt anthropogenic and natural disturbances (fire) to the organic layer.

forest modeling wildfire
IEM Executive Summary

Alaska’s temperatures are rapidly increasing. The resulting changes in temperature, precipitation, permafrost, vegetation, and fire are closely linked. The Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska and Northwest Canada (IEM) aims to understand how changes in these processes are linked and how they will affect the broader region.

communication ecosystem-services modeling
IEM Fact Sheet

The Integrated Ecosystem Model is designed to help resource managers understand the nature and expected rate of landscape change. Maps and other products generated by the IEM will illustrate how arctic and boreal landscapes are expected to alter due to climate-driven changes to vegetation, disturbance, hydrology, and permafrost.

ecosystem-services iem modeling
IEM Final Report

This report describes the progress made by the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Project for the full duration of the project (September 1, 2011 through August 31, 2016). The primary goal of this project was to develop the IEM modeling framework to integrate the driving components for and the interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost dynamics, hydrology, and vegetation succession/migration for Alaska and Northwest Canada.

ecosystem-services iem modeling
Igiugig Village Climate Change Adaptation Assessment

In collaboration with the Village of Igiugig, SNAP completed a Climate Change Adaptation Assessment.

adaptation-plan community resiliency
Managing for the Future in a Rapidly Changing Arctic: A Report to the President

In consultation with the National Ocean Council, the National Security Staff, and the Arctic Research Commission, the Interagency Working Group on Coordination of Domestic Energy Development and Permitting in Alaska (Alaska Interagency Working Group) initiated this report to describe these challenges as they relate to the management of natural resources in the U.S. Arctic. The report presents recommendations for advancing a common management approach that provides coordinated, forward-thinking solutions.

climate communication data-visualization research-collaboration
Northern Alaska Scenarios Project Report

What makes northern Alaska communities resilient? Building on the North Slope Borough’s Healthy Communities Initiative and the Northwest Arctic Borough’s Healthy Kotzebue, Our Future!, a team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks, including SNAP scientists, completed a study that brought together Arctic Alaska resident experts and researchers to develop scenarios for healthy sustainable communities by the year 2040.

community resiliency scenario-planning
NPR-A Climate Change Analysis

The Bureau of Land Management‐Arctic Field Office is responsible for the management of the National Petroleum Reserve‐Alaska (NPR‐A). The BLM is incorporating climate change modeling tailored for the NPR‐A and areas on Alaska’s North Slope that may seasonally be home for animals that could be affected by BLM‐authorized activities in NPR‐A. SNAP provided objective scenarios based on climate projections and associated models of future landscape conditions that are helping to inform the EIS planning process.

climate oil-and-gas
Peonies in a Changing Climate: A Case Study

Peony farming serves as an excellent case study for research on climate change and agriculture in Alaska. Why? Peonies represent a burgeoning niche market, and are a crop that is uniquely lucrative in Alaska for reasons linked directly to our climate. Peonies bloom in Alaska in July, August, and September—later in the year than in other locations—and are available commercially nowhere else in the world during this time.

Predicting Future Potential Climate-Biomes for the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Alaska

These projects used progressive clustering methodology, existing land cover classifications, and historical and projected climate data to identify areas of Alaska, the Yukon, and NWT that are likely to undergo the greatest or least ecological pressure, given climate change. Project results and data presented in this report are intended to serve as a framework for research and planning by land managers and other stakeholders with an interest in ecological and socioeconomic sustainability.

biome climate
Preliminary Report to the Governor’s Sub-cabinet on Climate Change

In collaboration with stakeholders, SNAP produces projections of future conditions in Alaska. We also provide objective interpretations of potential future scenarios, including detailed explanations of assumptions, models, methods, and uncertainties. SNAP scenarios and the data used to produce them are openly available to all potential users.

climate state-of-alaska
Projected Climate Change Scenarios for the BLM Eastern Interior Management Area, 2001-2099

This report was commissioned by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to identify vegetation and fire regime response to projected future climate changes in Interior Alaska.

alfresco climate forest modeling wildfire
Quantifying the effect of fuel reduction treatments on fire behavior in boreal forests

Published in NRC Research Press. Authors: B.W. Butler, R.D. Ottmar, T.S. Rupp, R. Jandt, E. Miller, K. Howard, R. Schmoll, S. Theisen, R.E. Vihnanek, and D. Jimenez.

journal-publication wildfire
Quantifying the Effects of Fuels Reduction Treatments on Fire Behavior and Post-fire Vegetation Dynamics

This report details the effects of fuel reduction treatments on fire behavior in Alaska. Our results provide the first set of data required by fire behavior models, fuels characterization systems, and fire effects models. In addition, we are providing guidelines directed at design and methodology that can be used to assist in carrying out other experimental burns in Alaska when opportunity arises.

forest modeling wildfire
Quarterly Highlights: Summer 2020

In this season’s SNAP Highlights you’ll find details and guidance about the use of two SNAP tools key to understanding fire: the Wildfire in Alaska Tool and the Daily Fire Tally Tool.

web-tool wildfire
Research Summary: Projecting vegetation and wildfire responses to changing climate and fire management in interior Alaska

We used the Alaska Frame-based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO) vegetation-fire computer model to investigate how increasing fire suppression on military training lands could influence the extent and frequency of wildfire activity within the Upper Tanana Hydrologic Basin through the 21st century.

forest modeling
Risk Based Slope Asset Management

Hyper-detailed surface modeling and change detection methods have been developed to understand slope stability along critical Alaska highways at Glitter Gulch and Long Lake.

infrastructure modeling remote-sensing transportation
Sensitivity of Simulated Boreal Fire Dynamics to Uncertainties in Climate Drivers

This paper uses a transient landscape-level model of vegetation dynamics, Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO), to evaluate the influence of different driving datasets of climate on simulation results.

alfresco journal-publication modeling
State of Change: Climate Change in Alaska’s National Park Areas

This guide is a conversation with people who visit and work around Alaska’s national parks. It will help illustrate what we’re doing about the changing climate. You will find facts about the science, visible evidence you can see, examples of how parks are making a difference, and things you can do to make a difference too.

climate national-parks research-collaboration
U.S. Patent for Volcanic Ash Modeling

Research and development of an in-situ sensor deployable on UAS to collect real-time data about volcanic aerosol size, concentration, and chemistry.

UAS Command and Control Communications Feasibility Study: Final Report

This is the report for a study conducted by the Exelis Inc. – University of Alaska Fairbanks Team for a feasibility assessment of alternative C-Band terrestrial based command and control communications approaches for supporting low altitude unmanned aircraft system inspections over the 800 mile length of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, also known as Alyeska Pipeline.

drone infrastructure oil-and-gas
UAV inspection of the Placer River Trail bridge through image-based 3D modeling

Unmanned aerial vehicle research resulted in the first bridge inspection and a hyper-detailed 3D model for bridge inspections in the United States.

drone infrastructure transportation
Yukon Water Availability Analysis

The high-latitude ecosystems of the Yukon are vulnerable to climate change, including hydrologic changes. In order to predict potential changes in growing season water balance in the Yukon, the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP) and Yukon College collaborated to develop a modeling tool for mapping future growing-season water availability.

freshwater hydrology modeling research-collaboration